New research could predict heart disease risk early

Published: 28 September 2025

A new study will explore how genetic biomarkers could predict heart disease risk earlier, helping identify individuals who may be missed by current screening tools and allowing for earlier, more targeted prevention strategies.

New research will turn to genetics in a bid to tackle New Zealand’s leading cause of death, heart disease, with a new study that could inform how heart risk is assessed and diagnosed.

With funding from the Heart Foundation, Janny Lau, a University of Otago PhD student at Christchurch Heart Institute, and a team of researchers will investigate whether hidden genetic factors can help identify people at risk of early-onset heart disease, particularly those who appear low-risk under current screening tools but have a strong family history of heart disease and stroke.

GPs currently use the New Zealand cardiovascular risk score to estimate a person’s chance of having a heart attack or stroke within five years. While it’s useful for broad categorisation, it can’t predict exactly who will have a heart attack or stroke.

Now genetics may offer a breakthrough.

How new biomarker holds key to earlier risk diagnosis

Her research will compare the genetic profiles of people with early-onset heart disease to those diagnosed later in life, looking at both common and rare genetic variants. 

Janny says current risk assessments often come too late.

In New Zealand, Māori and Pasifika are usually assessed for heart attack risk from an earlier age, but even then it can sometimes be too late.

“If genetics can pinpoint who is more at risk of developing heart disease earlier in life, then we can intervene earlier with preventive strategies,” Janny says.

“It could mean we delay or even prevent them from developing heart disease through early detection.”

Why this could help Māori and Pasifika

Researchers will also explore whether population-specific thresholds are needed to ensure diagnostic tests are accurate and equitable.

The second part of her research will aim to understand why Māori and Pasifika typically show lower levels of a key biomarker called BNP to diagnose heart failure. This could potentially lead to missed or delayed diagnoses.

Janny explains that BNP is considered the “gold standard” biomarker used to exclude, diagnose and help manage heart failure. 

“If one population group has naturally lower BNP levels, we could inadvertently underestimate their risk of heart failure.

“If we can understand why they have lower levels of BNP, this is likely to inform how we can manage individuals more effectively and prolong lives.”

Heart Foundation Medical Director Dr Gerry Devlin says Janny’s work has the potential to improve lives through early detection.

“Janny’s findings add weight to exciting new evidence that suggests both common and rare genetic variants contribute to heart disease risk. 

“This research has the potential to improve lives through earlier detection and lead to more individualised care.”