Heart disease deaths set to surge unless New Zealand urgently tackles obesity and high blood pressure

Published: 20 July 2026

Thousands of New Zealand lives could be saved if urgent action is taken, as obesity overtakes smoking as a leading contributor to heart disease, and high blood pressure remains dangerously underdiagnosed.

New Zealand's progress in reducing heart disease has stalled, and without decisive action, the number of cardiovascular deaths (including heart disease, stroke and circulatory diseases) is estimated to increase by more than 25 per cent by 2040.

The Heart Foundation is calling for a national heart health action plan that places obesity and hypertension (high blood pressure) at the centre of New Zealand's response to the country's biggest killer.

"Cardiovascular disease is killing around 10,000 New Zealanders every year, yet many of these deaths are avoidable," says Heart Foundation Medical Director Dr Gerry Devlin.

"For decades, we've made remarkable progress, but that momentum has slowed. The risk factors driving heart disease have changed, and our response needs to change with them."

The Heart Foundation's new white paper highlights that dietary risks and obesity now contribute more to New Zealand's deaths than smoking, while high blood pressure remains the leading modifiable risk factor for heart disease and stroke.

“We are urging the Government to recognise obesity as the urgent chronic disease that it is,” Dr Devlin says, “It significantly increases the risk of heart attack, heart failure, stroke and diabetes."

More than one in three New Zealand adults now live with obesity, giving New Zealand the third-highest obesity rate in the OECD. Yet there is currently no comprehensive national guidance integrating obesity management into cardiovascular care.

"New cardiometabolic drugs have transformed obesity treatment internationally and have been shown not only to help people lose weight, but to reduce heart attacks and improve cardiovascular outcomes. New Zealand needs to ensure people who would benefit can access evidence-based care."

Funded access to these medicines is available across many comparable OECD countries, but New Zealanders often face delayed access. 

“New treatments are often slow to reach New Zealanders or receive regulatory approval and funding. For example, approval of SGLT2 inhibitor drugs for heart failure in New Zealand came more than four years after the European Union and the USA,” Dr. Devlin says.

Another major risk factor for heart disease – high blood pressure – often called the silent killer because people often have it without symptoms, affects a million New Zealanders.

Despite the availability of effective treatments, almost one in three New Zealanders with high blood pressure has not been diagnosed, and two-thirds of those with high blood pressure do not have it adequately controlled.

The white paper calls to prioritise a Hypertension Taskforce to rapidly increase awareness, earlier detection, and more effective treatment and sustained control of elevated blood pressure, especially for the highest risk populations.

"If we simply improved blood pressure control to 50 per cent by 2035, more than 12,000 lives could be saved by 2040," Dr. Devlin continues.

“Improving detection and control of high blood pressure represents the single largest immediate opportunity to reduce avoidable deaths in the short term.  It is also the most cost-effective and immediate intervention to prevent heart disease.

“We lag well behind comparable health systems in other countries, including Canada, where 64% of people have blood pressure controlled, double the New Zealand rate. ”

Heart disease is costing the New Zealand health system more than $3.3 billion every year.  One in six hospital bed days is taken up by heart disease and stroke, more than cancer and respiratory disease. 

"We know what works. We have the evidence. What we need now is leadership and urgency," Dr Devlin says.

You can read the full white paper by clicking on the button below.

Download our white paper

Key facts

• Cardiovascular deaths could increase by almost 25% by 2040 if current trends continue.
• Obesity now contributes more to heart disease than smoking.
• Hypertension contributes to an estimated 45% of cardiovascular deaths.
• Nearly one-third of people with hypertension remain undiagnosed.
• More than one-third of New Zealand adults live with obesity, the third-highest rate in the OECD.
• Around 20,000 premature deaths could be prevented by 2040 through coordinated action.